Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS64 KEPZ 260420
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1020 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur on Tuesday, with
   the best chances for rain in area mountains.

 - Dry southwest flow aloft will keep the area mostly dry
   Wednesday through Saturday. Otero and Hudspeth counties could
   see thunderstorms later in the work week due to moisture from
   the east.

 - We will finish out May with high temperatures running a few
   degrees below average each day through the coming weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

An approaching upper level storm system brought a nice change of
pace to our weather in the form of wide spread showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Drier air will be pushing into the area
tonight and that will wrap up our rain chances and clouds for most
of the area. But the upper level trough will be moving slow
enough and despite the drier air moving in, we will still have
enough moisture to give area mountains a chance for more rain
showers Tuesday afternoon. Most of us will stay dry, but a few
lucky folks could get a little more rain. Our high temperatures on
Tuesday will continue to run 5 to 8 degrees below average.

As the first upper level trough moves off we will see a drier
southwest flow set up across the region. This pattern will keep
us dry into the coming weekend with temperatures continuing to run
near or a little below average. The one gotcha we have to keep an
eye on is the fact that deeper moisture will continue to lurk
just to the east of the area. For the most part the southwest flow
aloft will keep the moisture to our east, but we could see some
moisture slip into the eastern part of the area and give parts of
Otero and Hudspeth Counties a chance for thunderstorms. As we
start June early next week, we will be mainly dry with seasonal
temperatures. Still no sign of any triple digit temperatures in
the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

The upper level storm system that brought us thunderstorms, wind
and dust on Monday continues to give; as we still see a few
showers lingering into the late night hours. Our winds will drop
off and we will have generally light south winds tonight. As drier
air moves into the region tonight, we will see less and less
clouds. We will have unlimited ceilings throughout the day on
Tuesday. Our light winds Tuesday morning will come around to the
southwest in the afternoon and we could see more low end wind
gusts for a few hours Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Generally low fire weather concerns due to wind speeds staying
below critical thresholds each afternoon. Thunderstorms this
afternoon will continue to push eastward. Another round of
thunderstorms possible tomorrow afternoon mostly focusing over the
area mountains. Min RHs tomorrow will be in the single digits in
far southwestern NM with values of 6-10% but much higher min RHs
will be found the further north and east you go into New Mexico.
The Sacramento Mtns will see RHs of around 40-45%. Expect light
southwest to westerly breezes at 5-10 mph. Wednesday through
Saturday will feature dry conditions for much of the area, a
moisture boundary (dryline) will push moisture in from the Great
Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning before this boundary
gets shoved eastward throughout the day. The dryline will continue
making a westward push overnight and push eastward each
afternoon. Thursday through Saturday, Otero and Hudspeth counties
will have the best chances to see thunderstorms but elsewhere will
stay dry. Min RHs stay critical each afternoon Wednesday through
Saturday throughout the lowlands (6-12%) and near critical in the
Sacramento Mtns (18-20%).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  86  61  90 /  40  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  81  53  85 /  80  10   0   0
Las Cruces               52  83  53  86 /  40  10   0   0
Alamogordo               55  80  56  86 /  70  30  10   0
Cloudcroft               41  58  41  65 /  90  50  10   0
Truth or Consequences    55  80  54  85 /  50  30   0   0
Silver City              50  77  49  79 /  20  10   0   0
Deming                   53  88  54  90 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg                55  85  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  85  61  88 /  30  10   0   0
Dell City                55  81  54  87 /  90  60   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  89  59  92 /  80  10   0   0
Loma Linda               55  78  55  82 /  70  10   0   0
Fabens                   58  88  57  91 /  60  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             55  84  55  87 /  30  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  83  62  87 /  50  20   0   0
Jornada Range            52  82  53  86 /  60  20   0   0
Hatch                    53  86  53  89 /  40  10   0   0
Columbus                 58  88  61  90 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                55  80  54  85 /  60  20   0   0
Mayhill                  46  68  44  77 /  90  80  10   0
Mescalero                45  69  45  75 /  80  50  10   0
Timberon                 44  66  43  72 /  80  50  10   0
Winston                  43  72  43  78 /  50  50   0   0
Hillsboro                53  80  53  83 /  40  30   0   0
Spaceport                50  81  50  85 /  60  20   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  77  44  80 /  20  10   0   0
Hurley                   48  80  48  82 /  20  10   0   0
Cliff                    51  84  48  86 /  20  10   0   0
Mule Creek               49  79  48  81 /  10  10   0   0
Faywood                  50  79  50  81 /  30  10   0   0
Animas                   54  85  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  85  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           55  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  79  53  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice